03.09.2013 - Čím bude bojovat Sýrie v případě možné vnější agrese

The material of the Centre for analysis of world trade weapons - CAMTO (Центр анализа мировой торговли оружием - ЦАМТО), 30.8.2013:
www.armstrade.org

The will to fight Syria in case of external aggression?

30. August 2013 magazine CAMTO published information for potential Syria options in repelling the external aggression. In connection with the rapid development of the situation CAMTO published the expanded material on this topic.

As has already been in mass media all over the world indicated, the situation in Syria has heightened after the US indicated a presumption that the regular army used chemical weapons (Ed. FCH - this article does not address, if this information is true or not).

What changes have taken place in recent days on the political scene in the evaluation of the possibilities to implement a strike on Syria?

U.S. president Barack Obama is ready to carry out a limited military strike on Syria regardless of the fact that the members of the Great Britain the participation of its troops refused, informs the Washington Post referring to representatives of the american administration.

For refreshment, I note that the British parliament rejected the request of prime minister David Cameron about the possibility of the participation of british troops in a military operation in Syria. The vote was advisory in nature, David Cameron, but has said it will act in accordance with the opinion of the parliament.

It should be noted that even 28.8.2013 the british Ministry of foreign in accordance with the aggressive military rhetoric ahead of the US by stating that "a military operation against Syria will be launched without regard to the veto of the UN security Council".

In response to the decision of the british parliament not to participate in the military operation against Syria, spokesman of the national security Council U.S. Caitlin Hayden reported that president Obama will be in decision-making on Syria guided by the national interests of the United states.

"No matter that Obama has not taken a final decision, all indications are that the strike may be started after 21. August after Syria leaves the UN inspectors, who are investigating the anticipated chemical attack", he wrote recently in the Washington post.

28.August was The nac (North Atlantic Council) at the level of the representatives of the 28 NATO member states. Diplomats have been accused of using chemical weapons in Syria president Bašara Assad in a statement that it is the led information "available from a wide range of sources, which indicate the responsibility of the syrian regime using chemical weapons". NATO also declared that the responsible for the chemical attack must answer for it".

Conference of the five permanent members of the UN security Council (people's republic of China, France, Russia, the USA and the United kingdom) took place without the adoption of the resolution, have informed agency France press. Encounter fives was carried out on the basis of the initiative of Russia. The theme of the consultation was a draft resolution from Britain, which favored the adoption of the necessary measures to protect the population of Syria, including the use of force against the syrian power authorities. On Wednesday, 28. August the leaders of the permanent five have discussed this british initiative and not yet come to shodnému decision.

In the opinion of the CAMTO, if he wins the position of Russia and China, who are against military intervention against Syria and prefer a diplomatic solution to the situation, it will be a great victory for common sense.

With regard to the regular army of Syria recently achieved considerable success in the fight with the armed opposition (but often talks about the fact that these are mercenaries from other states), is the alleged chemical attack last pretext to conduct a military strike against Syria to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The analogy with the strikes on Libya or Iraq is quite obvious.

Therefore, the Russian diplomacy in cooperation with the Chinese exert extraordinary efforts to secure the supremacy of the unsc resolutions on Syria in connection with the efforts of the unilateral decision of some states led by the united states. In addition, it is imperative to ensure the highest possible objectivity of the investigation of the use of chemical weapons in Syria, which lead the UN inspectors.


What may defy Syria external aggression?

The obvious advantage of the Syrian regular army in the event of a ground operation is a mobile army, which recently has gained considerable experience in the fighting with the armed opposition, including actions in urban conditions. A lack is that the part of the military infrastructure is damaged by the gangs of the opposition. It is possible that a loss has suffered a number of bases and objects of military infrastructure. If we proceed from the fact that the combat activity of the armed opposition is conducted practically on the whole territory of Syria, are the exact coordinates of the key objects of military infrastructure, long known as the opposition bojůvkám, as well as their foreign "sponsors".

In relation to the combat readiness of the air force, we must point out that the fighter during the armed struggle with the opposition has been used very rarely and on the effectiveness of the ingestion of helicopter gunships data are not (some helicopters of the regular army was lost after their postřelování from hand-held anti-aircraft rocket complexis).

Against the opposition have not been at all used means of air defense, but which will have a key role in case of external aggression (one can expect that in the first stage, it will be mass strikes missile with cruise missiles followed by the use of air force against the key objects of military infrastructure).


In recent years, gave Russia several large shipments of weapons to Syria.

Means of air defense

the Largest of the last supply in the segment of air defense:
- delivery of 6 pieces of anti-aircraft raketodělostřeleckých complexes (PLRDK) 2K22 Tunguska (the contract was closed in 2004, the delivery was carried out in 2008);
- delivery of 18 pcs anti-aircraft missile systems (anti-aircraft rocket complexis) 9K317 Buk-M2E (the contract was closed in 2007, delivery was carried out in 2008);
- delivery of 36 pcs anti-aircraft rocket complexis 96K6 Pancir-S1 (the contract was closed in 2006, van was launched in 2008, the last 6 pieces should be delivered this year);
- delivery of a large number of portable anti-aircraft rocket complexis 9K338 Igla-S (the contract was closed in 2005, the delivery was carried out in 2005 - 2006, the number is not known);
- delivery of 2 pieces of anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-125-2M Pechora-2M (the contract was closed in 2008, the delivery was carried out in 2011 and 2012, 2 firing sections after 4 launch ramps (OR), a total of 8 OR).

Prospective purchases in the nearby future in the segment of air defense:
- the modernization of anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-125 Neva (a few dozen). Ongoing technical condition of the complexes and their degree of modernization is not known. Demand in the commercial offer of the modernization of anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-125 Neva option S-125-2M Pechora-2M was sent a long time ago, the current status of this program is unknown)
- the purchase of anti-aircraft rocket complexis 9K331 Tor-M1 (the order was filed a long time ago, the current status of this program is unknown)
- purchase of S-300 (the data for this delivery are not known)

It is still to be noted that so far there are no precise data about what type of anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-300 Syria in 2010, ordered according to a number of sources of information should be anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-300PMU-1.

It is expected that delivery under this contract should be completed no earlier than in mid-2014. After delivery, tuning and a comprehensive functional review of all equipment anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-300 it is necessary to count at least another half a year on the training of syrian specialists and only in that case that have gone through internships in Russia. Therefore, you can expect to achieve a combat-ready anti-aircraft rocket complexis S-300 (assuming that will be delivered) by the end of 2014 or early 2015.


Other programs

Among the largest programs that have been implemented, include:
- modernization of tanks T-72 to the level T-72M1 (about 1000 tanks);
- delivery of 2 batteries of coastal protilodních missile systems (PLoRK) K-300P Bastion-P, 72 anti-ship missiles 3M55E Jachont;
- a large supply of aviation equipment;
- general overhaul of the park fighter aircraft MiG-23;
- upgrading of several fighter aircraft on the MiG-29S;
- truck driving simulator for helicopters Mi-17 and Mi-24;
- many other, vaguely of the programmes.

In the number of promising projects is being considered for purchase diesel electric submarines, tanks T-90S, various types of surface vessels and a number of other weapons.

are currently implemented contracts for the supply of several weapons systems including 24 pcs fighter planes MiG-29M/M2 and 36 pcs training battle aircraft How-130UBS, however, their delivery is suspended due to the blockade of transport routes.


Other suppliers

In addition to Russia, he added various weapon systems to Syria, Iran, it is not excluded that even the China.



a Summary of the past

Military-technical cooperation between Russia and Syria began in 1956. For the whole period of this cooperation was the Syrian armed forces delivered approximately 65 tactical and operational tactical missile complexes, about 5000 tanks, more than 1,200 combat aircraft, 4200 guns and mortars, 70 combat vessels and many other types of weapons.


Consequences for Russia

From the point of view of the security of their own geopolitical influence in the region is for Russia the crucial importance of the conservation of the centre of the material-technical security of the Russian fleet in the syrian port of Tartus (34°54'49"N 35°52'11"E). Withtředisko material-technical security of Tartus is the only focal point of the navy of the Russian federation in the Mediterranean sea.

Loss Tartusu would be very problematic functioning of the Russian permanent naval group in the Mediterranean sea.

If you will fall, Bashar al-Assad, Russia will lose Syria at present, practically the only ally in the Middle east and simultaneously with the termination of military-technical cooperation with Damascus will lose several billion dollars.

If as a result of the military aggression of the overthrow of the legal government in Syria, will be the next expected step in a military operation of the USA and Israel against Iran..

V souvislosti s uvedenym konstatovani o ztrate dulezitych financnich zdroju si dovolim jednu (rozvinutou ) otazku :

Opravdu tyto zeme v rozkladu za sve zbrane plati ? cim ? kde na to berou ? samozrejme chapu, ze se daji stahovat penize ze zemi sedicich na rope a uzivajicich si blahobytu nejake diktatorske dynastie, ale kdo a jak plati za zbrane dodavane do zemi jako je Lybie, Syrie, Egypt ... ? Opravdu je to financne tak vyhodne, nebo se jedna o de facto sponzorovani jednou z velmoci za ucelem zachovani geopolitickeho vlivu v oblasti ?

Asi A i B je pravda.
Nebudou platit plnou cenu, ale něco asi ano.
No a zbytek platí právě tím přístavem.

Moje hypotéza - může jít kromě jiných pohnutek o (byť značně nejistou)investici do budocnosti. Viz Madeleine Albright a její podpora kosovských povstalců (včetně teroristické UÇK) -což se jí a její rodině (nikoli však americkým daňovým poplatníkům) bohatě vyplatilo účastí na privatizaci kosovských státních podniků.

Ad financování:
Včera nebo předevčírem jsem zaznamenal informaci, že Sýrie splatila značnou část dluhů, aby tak ještě více motivovala Rusko k podpoře. Sýrie ty prachy bude mít z Íránu. Oni ale Rusové i tak mají zájem, aby se tam nic neměnilo. Pád Sýrie by dříve či později asi znamenal pád Íránu a ohrožení ruských pozic ve Střední Asii. Zdejší státy by navíc získaly reálnou možnost vyvážet plyn a ropu jižním směrem, bez účasti Ruska.

Co se týká té modernizace tanků T-72 zmíněné v prvním příspěvku - přesnější by asi bylo uvést, že údajně zhruba 120 vozidel řady T-72 (T-72, T-72M1 a T-72AV) bylo v modernizováno pomocí italského systému řízení palby TURMS-T (stejný je na českých T-72M4 CZ) na verzi známou jako T-82.